At a recent event, someone asked me the question, “Does online gaming as a kid lead to gambling as an adult?”

It’s a great question. So let’s try to answer it.

In today’s newsletter:

Let’s dive in.

Gambling is everywhere now.

Sports betting apps like FanDuel and DraftKings. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Even a whole economy built around buying and reselling Pokémon cards.

And a lot of video games run the same playbook as casino games, whether they admit it or not:

So does online gaming as a kid lead to gambling as an adult?

I don't think it's one-to-one.

Take me for instance. My gaming problem—at one point, playing upwards of 12 hours a day—never turned into a gambling problem.

But that doesn’t mean I haven’t seen it happen to others.

Here’s my working theory: Some people are naturally wired to be more at risk for gambling. And gaming often reinforces the exact systems gambling runs on. Enough exposure to that cycle can numb you to it, and train you to keep chasing a high.

So, I went looking for what the research actually says.

A study published in 2018 by the National Library of Medicine asked 10,081 people about gaming and gambling habits in 2013 (called “wave 1” in the study), and 5,809 of those responded again in 2015 (called “wave 2” in the study). Then they wrote:

They also cautioned that this should not be taken as “categorical evidence that problem gamers develop into problem gamblers.” Fair enough.

A different study, published in 2025 by Addiction Research & Theory, drew these conclusions:

But this one had a twist: apparently “no association between early computer-based gaming at 9 years and subsequent gambling behaviors at 20 was uncovered for this cohort.”

So basically, online gaming as a very young kid didn’t show a significant connection with gambling later in life. But the older a gamer gets, the more likely they may be to turn to gambling.

That tracks with something obvious once you say it out loud.

Most 9-year-olds don't have a real concept of what money is worth. A 17 or 20-year-old does. So it makes sense the connection shows up once kids are old enough to actually understand what they're risking.

Is this causation or correlation? I can't settle that from two studies. Seeing 1.4 and 1.7 higher odds isn't overwhelming, but it’s also not nothing. And when you consider that kids are being asked to hand over real money for a randomized shot at something they want… that stops looking like a maybe to me.

At that point, the kids aren't gaming anymore. They are literally gambling.

When it comes to the gaming-to-gambling conversation, here are some questions I’d recommend you ask your kids (and yourself for that matter).

Gaming used to be a black hole for me, eating up 12 hours a day, easy. I know my own story well enough now that I don't play games at all anymore to avoid the trigger.

I’ve tried gambling, hated how it felt to lose, and was able to walk away without much thought. I wouldn’t choose to go to a casino, but I also don’t think it’d be an immediate trigger for me if I walked into one.

That's what self-control looks like for me. What about for you?

So, if you already know you can be compulsive, is dabbling worth it? Sometimes the wisest move is staying all the way away.

Including from “games” that use gambling-like mechanics to hook users.

Which leads to the next question…

Next time you're deep in a game, ask yourself: is this rewarding skill, or is it rewarding chance?

A story, a challenge, some social fun with friends? That's a normal game.

But if the payoff is totally random, if you don't know whether you're about to get something good, great, or nothing, then you're not playing a game anymore.

Gambling makes this promise: “Give us your money (or time) and you might win big.”

If a game starts making that promise, it’s not a game. It’s gambling.

Learn to tell the difference, and don't let yourself become the kind of person who gets hooked on "maybe" and calls it a hobby.

My cards are on the table.

I think kids who gamble (even if it’s packaged as a “game”) are at real risk to become adults who gamble. Some because they’re naturally inclined to get hooked on playing with chance, others because they’re nurturing that behavior into a habit.

But flip the question…

Do you think kids who learn to understand their stories, recognize what gambling looks like, and practice self control with little things will grow into adults who can practice self control in the big things?

That’s a chance I’d probably bet on.

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